Just four races remain in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season. This weekend marks the first race of the Round of 8, where the remaining eight Playoff drivers have an opportunity to punch their ticket to Phoenix and race for a Championship.
Our first stop in the Round of 8 is Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Let’s break down Las Vegas and see if we can’t narrow in on a winner.
Las Vegas historically isn’t a track for surprise winners. No driver has even got their first career win at Las Vegas in the Cup Series in 34 races. That eliminates 12 drivers who are still looking for their first career win on Sunday from contention.
Six of the last seven Las Vegas races have been won by current Playoff drivers, Alex Bowman is the lone exception. If you include Kurt Busch’s win in 2020, then the streak goes back as far as nine of the last 11 races. That brings us down to nine drivers remaining - the eight playoff drivers plus Alex Bowman.
Before we eliminate Playoff drivers one by one, let’s see who the Professor’s predictor model and the sportsbook think is going to win this Sunday.
The Predictor vs. The Books
FanDuel Sportsbook has Kyle Larson (+280) as the heavy favorite, followed by William Byron (+850), Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick (+950), Denny Hamlin (+1000), and Ryan Blaney (+1400).
The Professor agrees all six of these drivers are in the top seven of the predictor. Larson, Byron, Hamlin, Reddick, Bell, Ross Chastain, then Blaney. Joey Logano is ranked 16th on the predictor, the lowest of all Playoff drivers. However, he has the seven best odds to win at +1500. Chase Elliott has the worst odds to win of any Playoff driver at +1600 but ranks eighth on the predictor.
Both the predictor and the sportsbooks think the winner will be a playoff driver. Alex Bowman - the only non-playoff driver remaining - is 15th on the predictor, so we’re going to eliminate him from winning contention.
There are three Las Vegas trends I’m focusing on that will predict the winner on Sunday.
Trend #1 - Five of the last seven Las Vegas races have been won by Hendrick Motorsports.
Chevrolet has won six of the last eight Las Vegas races, including three-in-a-row all by Hendrick drivers. They’re the flagship Chevrolet team, so if I’m backing Chevy, I’m backing Hendrick Motorsports.
Kyle Larson alone has won the last two Las Vegas races, while William Byron won the Spring race last year. Alex Bowman is the other Hendrick Motorsports driver to win here. Noticeable absent is Chase Elliott, who has yet to win at the track.
The predictor already eliminated Alex Bowman, and since Chase Elliott seems to be the fourth-best Hendrick car at Las Vegas, he’s being eliminated from win contention too.
I’m also eliminating Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick. Only two active Ford drivers have won here, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski, and only two active Toyota drivers have won here,
Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. So they fall into the Chase Elliott criteria.
Trend #2 - The winner has started inside the Top 10 in eight of the last nine races.
This trend is helpful if you want to wait and bet on the winner after qualifying. Of the five drivers remaining, three of them average a starting position inside the Top 10 on 1.5-mile tracks.
Christopher Bell (6.7), Kyle Larson (7.0), and William Byron (7.6). Bell won the pole at Las Vegas in the Spring of 2023. Denny Hamlin (11.9) and Joey Logano (13.0) are now officially eliminated.
Trend #3 - The Stage 2 winner has gone on to win the race 10 times (69%) - The MOST at any track.
This is my favorite trend of the weekend. My betting strategy going into this race is simple, live bet the winner of Stage 2 to win the race no matter what.
Of the three drivers remaining, Kyle Larson swept the last four Las Vegas stages and went on to win the race. William Byron swept both stages and went on to win in his Las Vegas win. While Christopher Bell has never won a stage in the NextGen era at Las Vegas, effectively eliminating him from winning contention.
With a Championship 4 spot on the line, there’s a good chance our future 2024 Champion will win this race. Add up all these trends, look at recent finishes, and the season as a whole, there’s no doubt Kyle Larson should win this race.
However, at +280 that’s impossible to bet right now. So my winner at the South Point 400 at Las Vegas is William Byron (+850).
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +25.22 Units (9.01% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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