This Sunday marks the regular season finale as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Darlington Raceway for the Southern 500. Sunday’s race is also the final Crown Jewel event this season.
In a summer where first-time winners dominated victory lane, the sports superstars have dominated the Crown Jewel events. William Byron in the Daytona 500, Christopher Bell in the Coke 600, and Kyle Larson in the Brickyard 400.
While blindly betting the four favorites might seem appetizing based on the three previous winners in Crown Jewel events, the books have incredible value on some big names.
The Predictor vs. The Books
First, let’s look at The Professor’s Predictor. Tyler Reddick makes his season debut at the top of Tier 1, followed by Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott.
Tier 2 includes Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, and Ty Gibbs. Two names missing from the top are Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano, who kick off Tier 3.
The Professor finally didn’t give the sportsbooks any help this week, as we have some discrepancies between the Predictor and the books. Kyle Larson (+650) is the favorite followed by Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin (+700).
As for the other three Tier 1 drivers? That is where the value lies. However, I’m only betting two of them to win.
Tyler Reddick Outright Win - +700 on FanDuel
Before I get to some of the best value plays I’ve seen this season, let’s knock out some easy choices. Tyler Reddick has the second-best average running position at Darlington and the most laps led on average.
He’s the hottest driver on the planet right now, and not to mention he probably could’ve won this race in the Spring if not for contact with Chris Buescher.
I’m betting on the hottest driver to stay hot and roll into the Playoffs with a win.
William Byron Outright Win - +1200 on FanDuel
Who’s the only driver with a better average running position at Darlington than Tyler Reddick? William Byron. Byron runs one spot better than Reddick on average, however, he finishes six spots better than Reddick, which is the best among active drivers.
We’ve seen this type of trajectory from Byron and the #24 team before. A hot start followed by a slow summer, only to turn it on again for the Playoffs. This has a Byron win written all over it.
Joey Logano Outright Win - +2000 on FanDuel
Joey Logano has had a less-than-impressive season, the two-time champion has just one win and four Top 5s and sits 15th in points. However, Darlington is one of his best tracks, averaging just over an 11th-place finish (4th best).
Joey’s season has started to turn around over his last five races, averaging a 12th-place finish. His biggest hurdle is just not getting caught up in someone’s else misfortunes. At 20-1 for a guy who historically runs very well here, I’ll take a flyer on him.
Chase Elliott Outright Win - +2000 on FanDuel
NOTE: This line has been moving all week, so shop around to find the best price!
Chase Elliott at +2000 is probably the highest odds we’ve seen him since his rookie year. The crazy part is he’s not even running bad.
He’s just 18 points behind first for the regular season title, he collected his first DNF of the season last race and only has two finishes outside the Top 20 all season.
I simply don’t understand this line, and frankly, I don’t even need to look at his Darlington stats to bet this. Act now because this line will be gone after practice and qualifying.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +24.98 Units (10.54% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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