Since NASCAR moved its Championship race to Phoenix, the penultimate race at Martinsville has brought an intensity like no other. Four drivers will have their Championship dreams dashed after Martinsville.
Tyler Reddick and Joey Logano know they’ll fight for the Championship in Phoenix. Christopher Bell comes into Martinsville 29 points above the cut line, followed by William Byron 7 points above.
The four drivers below the cut line are Kyle Larson (-7), Denny Hamlin (-18), Ryan Blaney (-38), and Chase Elliott (-43).
The way the points shaped out following Homestead are why I think this race will be chaos. The only driver who can afford to points race to lock himself in is Christopher Bell, the rest have to win. And guess what, they’ve all won here before.
From a gambling perspective, this scenario makes it incredibly hard to predict a winner. It doesn’t help when the odd makers have all the must-win drivers priced at the top. I’ll discuss my strategy for betting this race, but first, let’s see who the Professor likes this week.
The Predictor vs. The Books
The Predictor likes Kyle Larson (+400) to win and advance to Phoenix, with Denny Hamlin (+400), Chase Elliott (+800), and Ryan Blaney (+600) rounding out tier 1.
Tier 2 is as follows: William Byron (+800), Christopher Bell (+1000), Joey Logano (+1200), Chase Briscoe (+2200), Bubba Wallace (+2800), Martin Truex Jr. (+1800), Ross Chastain (+2800), and Alex Bowman (+3500).
There’s some good longshot value in tier 2, but I don’t think the winner comes from tier 2 let alone a non-Playoff driver. This race will be won by a driver who needs to do it to make it to Phoenix and fight for a Championship.
Pre-practice and qualifying, there are a few props bets I like such as Margin of Victory. I’d recommend taking the four intervals ranging from 0.151-1.000.
I’ve also bet William Byron and Chase Elliott to be Top Chevy. I like them at plus money over Larson head-to-head and taking them Top Chevy would result in a bigger payout. I don’t see another Chevy team beating Hendrick Motorsports this weekend.
Aside from those bets, I’m going into this race with full intentions of LIVE betting the race winner, and here are two strategies I’m following based on recent Martinsville trends.
Strategy Play #1 - Target Drivers Who Will Start 11th-20th
In five of the last six Martinsville races, the race winner has started outside the Top 10. In those five races, they started 18th, 11th, 19th, 20th, and 13th. So don’t panic if the driver you want to bet on doesn’t make the final round of qualifying.
This is a great trend for us because it’ll be easier to spot who’s fast. If a driver drives from outside the Top 10 to the front in Stage 1, he’s an automatic hammer live bet.
Strategy Play #2 - Live Bet an Outright Winner After Stage 1
Since stage racing was implemented in 2017, no Martinsville winner has finished outside the Top 10 in Stage 1. That’s a sample size of 15 races. However, in the last seven races, a stage winner has only won once, Ryan Blaney in 2023.
The process of elimination will be key here. Identifying which drivers showed true speed and which drivers will be fighting to stay in the Top 10 will be a major factor.
My advice is to look for value among the Playoff drivers. If I see a Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, or Kyle Larson hovering around +500 odds after Stage 1, I’m betting it.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +25.84 Units (9.00% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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