The final race of the Round of 12 takes place this weekend in the heartland of NASCAR, Charlotte Motor Speedway. The ROVAL has some new kinks to it this year. A sharper apex has been added on the frontstretch and turn six is now a long straightaway before you reach a hairpin turn seven.
Despite the new quirks to the track’s layout, it’s still a road course and statistically, those who are good at most road courses, run well here at the ROVAL. That being said, my betting strategy for this race hasn’t changed from the previous road course - target Top 10 bets.
The Predictor vs. The Books
On this week's episode of Dirty Mo Dough, Steve Letarte and the boys were giving the Professor a hard time about his Predictor model this week. The two betting favorites, AJ Allmendinger and SVG, are 11th and 14th on his Predictor respectively. So who does the Professor have ahead of them?
Kyle Larson (+900) is first, followed by Chase Elliott (+1500), Tyler Reddick (+1300), Chris Buescher (+1400), Ty Gibbs (+1700), and Christopher Bell (+1300).
Tier 2 features Ross Chastain (+1800), Michael McDowell (+2200), William Byron (+1100), Alex Bowman (+2400), AJ Allmendinger (+800), and Kyle Busch (+2200).
With the ROVAL being a cut-off race, most Playoff drivers will be fighting for Stage points in the first two stages to try and advance to the next round of the Playoffs, ultimately killing their chances to win.
However, fast cars run up front, so I like for the faster Playoff drivers to eventually find their way inside the Top 10. Since their Top 10 prices alone are too high for me to bet, I’m parlaying multiple drivers to make a price I love.
TOP 10 Parlay #1 - AJ Allmendinger & Chase Elliott (+105)
Of the six races held at the ROVAL, these two drivers have won three of them. Including Allmendinger winning in the Next Gen car last year. Allmendinger has an average running position of 3.5 in two starts at the ROVAL in the Next Gen car.
Chase Elliott sits right on the cutline to advance to the next round of the Playoffs. He’s 13 points to the good over Joey Logano, so a solid Top 10 run would safely advance him to the next round.
Not to mention he’s led the third most laps here since 2022, behind Allmendinger and Tyler Reddick.
TOP 10 Parlay #2 - Tyler Reddick & Chris Buescher (+135)
If you had to build a Mt. Rushmore of drivers who run well at the ROVAL, statistically speaking Tyler Reddick has to be one of the four faces carved into the mountain.
Despite never winning, he holds the second-best average running position and fourth-best average finish, while leading 48 laps since 2022.
Chris Buescher won the most recent road course race three weeks ago at Watkins Glen, and that was no fluke. He holds the best average finish on all road courses since 2022 and quietly has a 6.5 average finish at the ROVAL.
TOP 10 Parlay #3 - Christopher Bell & Michael McDowell (+230)
When it truly mattered most, facing elimination, Christopher Bell stepped up and won this race in 2022. That win led him to eventually move on to Phoenix and race for the Championship.
This year Bell is safely above the cutline, in fact any stage points in Stage 1 will advance him to the next round. Therefore I have to look at him as a “non-Playoff driver” for the sake that he has nothing to lose. Mix that in with his road course numbers and I love this half of the bet.
Michael McDowell is one of the few names that always pop up when you head to a road course. However, the ROVAL is actually his worst road course statistically. He’s never led a lap here and has an average finish of 29th, however he's the reason we’re getting this 2-driver parlay at such a good price.
I’ll take McDowell’s road course track record over his ROVAL track record on this one.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +22.00 Units (7.94% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
Disclaimer:
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Read more about best responsible gambling practices.
Commenti