Race number two of the Round of 16 heads north to Watkins Glen. This is the first time Watkins Glen will host a Playoff race, creating a new challenge for Playoff drivers to advance into the second round.
Hendrick Motorsports has won the last five Watkins Glen races, and they’ve swept the road courses so far in 2024. I love William Byron (+750) to get it done this weekend and keep that streak going.
However, that's not my best bet of the weekend. This weekend I’m focusing on Top 10s because I see a ton of value in some road course aces.
The Predictor vs. The Books
First, let’s take a look at the Predictor. Tyler Reddick (+1000) is back on top in Tier 1, followed by Chase Elliott (+1000), Kyle Larson (+700), and Christopher Bell (+1500). I agree with the Predictor on this one, I think Christopher Bell holds the best value to win in the field.
Tier 2 - Chris Buescher (+3200), Ty Gibbs (+1300), William Byron (+750), Michael McDowell (+1600), and Kyle Busch (+1600). Chris Buescher is the biggest discrepancy between the Predictor and the Sportsbooks. He’s so undervalued in Vegas that he’s got longer odds to win than Juan Pablo Montoya, who hasn’t raced in the Cup Series in 11 years.
I love Chris Buescher this weekend… just not to win.
Chris Buescher TOP 10 (+140)
Chris Buescher holds the best average finish in the Next Gen era. He’s been coined by Steve Letarte as, “Mr. Always There.” He’s only finished outside the Top 10 on a road course twice since the Next Gen car was introduced.
He’s getting no respect from the Sportsbooks this weekend, I’d place a couple of units on this play. It’s also my Best Bet of the Week!
PARLAY - Christopher Bell & Tyler Reddick TOP 10 (+111)
You may have to shop around Sportsbooks to find one that allows you to parlay Top 10s, however, if you can I’d combine these two.
They're two of the hottest-running drivers in the series right now and both have great road course records. Tyler Reddick has finished Top 10 in nine of the last ten races and
Christopher Bell in six of the last ten races.
I have these two ranked first and second in my power rankings and both have been fast consistently on road courses. Don’t overthink it, take the best in the sport right now to finish well.
Joey Logano TOP 10 (+160)
I may be wrong on this play, but I’m not sure why there’s such disrespect from the oddsmakers with Joey Logano. He’s currently the only Playoff driver who is safely advanced to the Round of 12 and based on my research he’s not bad at Watkins Glen to warrant a +4100 price tag for a win.
Betting Logano to win might be a little steep, however, a Top 10 at +160? I love it. He averages a 10th-place running position and a 7th-place finish at The Glen. The stats back it up, and I’m going against the books on this one.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +19.99 Units (8.33% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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