Nashville Superspeedway is one of NASCAR’s most unique tracks. It’s a 1.33-mile concrete speedway that compares just as much to Dover as it does Kansas. Truly a unicorn when it comes to handicap.
The oddsmakers aren’t getting burned on the favorites this week, with seven drivers opening up at under 10/1 odds to win. So where’s the value this week? I think it’s in some Top 10 longshots.
The Predictor vs. The Books
Before we dive into Top 10s, let’s check out what the Predictor thinks for this weekend. Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott make up Tier 1 this week. The books agree, having all four of these drivers in their top 7.
William Byron, Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, and Ryan Blaney make up tier 2. Brad Keselowski holds the most value of tier 2, the books have him +2500 which is 12th best.
This week, I think there’s some serious money to be made in the Top 10 prop market. I’ll need a little luck, maybe some favorites to fall out, but here’s a list of drivers I think are worth taking a gamble on.
Todd Gilliland TOP 10 (+1100)
This is my Best Bet of the Week. Todd Gilliland has averaged a 13th-place finish his last five races, with no finish worse than 17th in his last seven races. Including one top 10 during that stretch.
Last week he led 19 laps and was running in the Top 10 most of the race before ending up 12th. He’s been the eighth best car the last five races and with longer odds for a Top 10 than eight drivers have to WIN, he’ll be on my card for sure.
Erik Jones Top 10 (+1100)
I’ve been careful in betting on drivers coming off back injuries, for example, Alex Bowman last year. It’s one of the worst injuries to come back from and getting back to 100% is normally a long process.
However, since returning Jones has run decently compared to how Bowman ran last year in far better equipment. Three 19th-place finishes and a 13th last week has me looking on the positive side.
His Nashville numbers are why I like this play though. He’s finished 11th and 8th here the past two years. It’s worth a look for sure.
Ryan Preece Top 10 (+2700)
I know you’re looking at your screen like I’m crazy. Preece has one Top 10 all season, he’s raced one race in the Cup Series at Nashville and finished 16th, and his team is dissolving at the end of the year, why would I bet on him?
Because he’s 27/1 to finish Top 10 that’s why. Preece is undefeated here in the Truck series, that talent is there we just need to find it. It’s crazy but it just might work.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +41.87 Units (29.27% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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