For the first time since 2020, NASCAR is returning to the traditional oval layout at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. One of NASCAR’s Crown Jewels is back and it comes right before a two-week Olympic break, meaning chaos could ensue trying to lock up a playoff spot before the break.
With no oval data with the Next Gen car to go off of, this week may be the hardest to handicap. Ten drivers have never raced on the oval before and superstars like Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick have only one start on this layout.
The Predictor vs. The Books
This week, 13 drivers make up the top two tiers of the Predictor. Denny Hamlin is the projected winner followed by William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Chase Elliott.
Tier 2 of the Predictor is headlined by Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher, and Bubba Wallace.
The biggest discrepancy between the Predictor and the books is Kyle Larson. The Professor has him ranked 7th, however, the books have him 2nd favorite at +700. The best value based on the Predictor lies with Tyler Reddick and Ross Chastain—two drivers I like to win on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin (+500)
In the words of Steve Letarte, “You need to have Denny Hamlin on your card in some capacity.” I thoroughly agree, Denny Hamlin wants to win this race badly. There’s not many races Denny Hamlin hasn’t won, especially when it comes to Crown Jewel races.
Hamlin owns an average finish of 13.4 on the oval in 15 starts. He has seven wins at Pocono, a good comparison track to Indianapolis, and averages a 12th-place finish at Phoenix—all solid enough stats and motivation enough for me to have Denny on my card this weekend.
Ryan Blaney (+1000)
I can sum this pick up in two words: Penske and Indianapolis. If there’s a race where Team Penske will spend more hours on, it’s a race at Indianapolis, especially in the return to the oval.
Let's look at the stats if that theory doesn’t do it for you. At comparable tracks like Pocono and Phoenix, Blaney has two wins and 11 Top 5s between the two tracks. Blaney also holds an 8.5 average finish over his last five races, I think there’s a good chance he goes back-to-back heading into the Olympic break.
Tyler Reddick (+1300)
There are a ton of drivers in the +1000 to +1600 range that I like this weekend and Tyler Reddick is high on that list. He’s the hottest driver in the series over the last 10 races, including seven Top 10s and four Top 5s.
In his one start on the oval in 2020, he finished 8th driving for Richard Childress Racing (RCR). I think there’s a little disrespect with this number, he should be a top 3 favorite and the Predictor agrees. Take the value here with Reddick.
Ross Chastain (+3700)
The bubble battle has changed dramatically in the past month. With Joey Logano and Alex Bowman collecting wins and locking themselves into the playoffs, the emphasis on winning has become even greater.
As it sits now, Ross Chastain is 16th, 27 points up on Bubba Wallace for the final playoff spot. He lost 26 points to the cutline after crashing out last week at Pocono, meaning he needs to find consistent good finishes.
He’s 11th on the Predictor, so at +3700, I love what we’re getting here. Chastain can be as aggressive as he wants with his points situation. I like a small play on Chastain and maybe hope he runs up front for a cash-out.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +29.96 Units (15.90% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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