The NASCAR Cup Series heads to its unofficial fifth crown jewel event, the night race at Bristol, this weekend. It’s also the final race in the Round of 16, meaning four drivers will be eliminated from Championship contention after Saturday night.
However, from a betting perspective, my focus is on the non-Playoff drivers, specifically one - Michael McDowell. I believe there’s a ton of value in McDowell this weekend and many different ways to bet on him.
But first, let’s glance at the Predictor and some of the who the books like.
The Predictor vs. The Books
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are poised to repeat their epic showdown from the Spring according to the books, they’re the co-favorite (+550), followed by Christopher Bell (+850), and Ty Gibbs (+1000).
The Predictor agrees, having Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin first and second, followed by Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, and Brad Keselowski in Tier 1. Ty Gibbs is eighth overall and third in Tier 2.
The driver on my radar ranks 21st on The Professor’s Predictor and has the 19th best odds to win according to Vegas (+8000). So if he’s that low on both why do I like him? Well, it depends on which bet we’re talking about.
Michael McDowell TOP 10 (+300)
Michael McDowell in the three concrete races at Bristol in the Next Gen era has finished no worse than 11th. His average running position is 11.7 and his average finish is 9.3. He ranks ninth on my Bristol power rankings.
All those stats point to value at +300 for a McDowell Top 10. He’ll be one of those drivers fighting from 7th-14th and my eyes will be glued to the battle.
Michael McDowell GROUP E (CZR’s) (+360)
Warning - check your Sportsbook to see if they offer this group. On Caesar’s, there’s a group bet with McDowell, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, and Bubba Wallace.
Based on my rankings, the only competition here should be Bowman who is the favorite to win this group at +200. Any time I can narrow down a group to a head-to-head matchup, I’m taking the underdog.
In my power ranking, I have McDowell ranked three spots ahead of Bowman, both on the fringe of the Top 10, so we’re betting on which of these two drivers can finish in the Top 10. Both are capable, but I’m giving the slight edge to McDowell based on the price here.
Michael McDowell Top Ford (+2500)
This is my favorite play of the weekend! In the three concrete Next Gen races at Bristol, McDowell has finished the third-highest Ford (behind Keselowski and Buescher), the second-highest Ford (behind Buescher), and the fourth-highest Ford (behind Buescher, Cole Custer, and Kevin Harvick).
Essentially only the RFK cars are standing in the way of McDowell and cashing this bet. The books have him the seventh Ford, which is way too low for his recent track record at Bristol. This is insane value for a guy who’s guaranteed to be in the Top 12.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +19.79 Units (7.13% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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