New pavement, new tire compounds, same short track package. There are some new variables to handicap this weekend for the All-Star race.
First, the old and worn-out historic pavement of the revived North Wilkesboro has been replaced with a shiny new coat of asphalt, raising many questions, like how will the cars handle? And how will the tires fall off?
Speaking of tires, NASCAR will give the teams two tire options this year—a “prime” tire and a “softer” option tire that will allow teams to run quicker for a shorter time with more fallout than the prime tire.
With all the variables laid out, how am I betting on the All-Star race? First, let’s start with the All-Star Open.
All-Star Open Outright Winner - Pick “The Big Three”
Ty Gibbs (+225), Bubba Wallace (+500), and Alex Bowman (+700) open up as the three favorites to WIN the Open and advance to the All-Star race. I’m coining them “The Big Three” this weekend, and it makes sense considering one is a Joe Gibbs Racing car, one is a 23XI car, and the third is a Hendrick Motorsports entry. Combined those teams have won every race but two this season.
If I structure this correctly, I can make money as long as one of these three drivers wins. Based on the odds, I favor Ty Gibbs.
The only thing standing in our way is that it is not just the winner who advances; it’s the
Top 2 finishers plus the Fan Vote. This means you probably won’t see someone make a move for the win, but rather for second, which pays nothing for us.
Now let’s talk about the main event, the All-Star Race.
All-Star Race Outright Winner - Kyle Larson (+850)
Honestly, I hate betting on the All-Star race. Since it's moved away from the Charlotte Motor Speedway, I’ve lost interest in trying to figure out who’s motivated to win this exhibition race.
However, this year has some built-in excitement with Kyle Larson missing the heat races due to his Indy 500 duties and having to start last for the All-Star race. That’s the kind of excitement I can get behind.
The man dominated this race last year. He’s starting dead last let’s just place the bet and enjoy the show. One thing to note is this line may move in our favor following qualifying and the heat races since it is determined he’s starting last. Either way no sense in rushing to the books to place this now.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +22.51 Units (21.76% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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