NASCAR heads to New England this weekend to take on the Magic Mile. New Hampshire hasn’t been too kind to the Chevrolets in recent history, with their last win coming in 2016 with Kevin Harvick. Since then, Toyota and Ford have won four a piece, with Toyota winning the last two years.
New Hampshire is one of the most unique tracks NASCAR visits. It races like a short track with its long, tight corners which means you’re under heavy braking. Yet it’s one mile in length, and straightaway speeds can top over 160 MPH.
The Predictor vs. The Books
Tier 1 on the Professor’s predictor model is seven-wide this week. Denny Hamlin is at the top, followed by last week’s winner Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell.
For the most part, the books agree with the Professor. Bell and Truex are co-favorites at +450, Hamlin is not far behind at +500, and Larson and Blaney are at +700.
Other notable Toyota drivers odds are Ty Gibbs (+1600), Tyler Reddick (+1800), and Bubba Wallace (+4000).
Best Bet of the Weekend - OVER 3.5 Toyotas in the Top 10 (-105)
Going off the predictor, this bet should cash, as the Professor has Hamlin, Truex Jr., Bell, and Reddick projected to finish in the Top 10. With Bubba Wallace sitting in Tier 3 at 12th for some insurance.
This bet has cashed each of the past two races at New Hampshire. Five Toyotas finished in the Top 10 in 2022 and four in 2023.
Value Play of the Weekend - Bubba Wallace Outright Winner (+4000)
In two NextGen races at New Hampshire, Bubba Wallace has finished 3rd and 8th, giving him an average finish of 5.5. That ranks second only behind Martin Truex Jr.
He’s been mediocre at best recently, with just one Top 10 in his last five races. However, Bubba usually tends to put more emphasis on tracks he performs well at, and he usually comes through.
At 40/1 odds, we’re getting the best value we’ve gotten on Bubba all year, and it’s worth a sprinkle at a quarter or half a unit.
Bonus: Wait to Bet the Favorites
With Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin being such favorites this week, it’s hard to separate the three statistically to know who to bet on pre-race. Sure, you can bet all three and try to structure it to make a small profit, but I call that “doing a lot of something to make nothing.”
My advice would be to wait and see how the race plays out, we can most likely eliminate one during the race and give ourselves a 50/50 chance at cashing the winner!
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +36.59 Units (26.97% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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