After a dominating win at Bristol, which saw him lead 462 of 500 laps, Kyle Larson looks to go back-to-back as we head to Kansas Speedway. Kansas also begins the Round of 12 in the Playoffs, meaning points reset and some drivers have more to lose than others.
I see a lot of value in the Top 10s this week, as I predict Kansas to be exciting yet more predictable with Playoff drivers dominating the front.
The Predictor vs. The Books
The Professor predicted Kyle Larson to win last week at Bristol and this week is much of the same. Larson is the Professor’s pick and the favorite at the Sportsbooks (+400).
Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Chase Elliott round out Tier 1 of the Predictor. Tier 2 features some valuable drivers: Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and Chris Buescher.
If you like betting the longshot to win, Bubba Wallace is +2400 and Ross Chastain is +3000. However, I’m more interested in their Top 10 numbers, which should be priced much lower based on their recent success.
Ross Chastain Top 10 (+105)
I’ve seen this Top 10 price go as low as +120, which is a MUST BET at that number. Ross has been running great of late, arguably the best he’s run all year. He holds the second-best average finish over the last five races behind Christopher Bell and the fifth-best average finish at Kansas.
My power rankings have Ross third behind Larson and Bell. Add that with the fact that Ross is used to playing spoiler for the Playoff drivers and I’m not sure how he doesn’t make your betting card for Sunday.
Alex Bowman Top 10 (+135)
Alex Bowman is our workhorse. I think we’re closing in on close to 10 winning Top 10 bets with the 48 car this season. We cashed one just last week at Bristol, and I'm backing him again if they continue to give us plus-money odds for a Top 10.
He holds the fourth-best average finish at Kansas (7.5) and has led the third most laps in the Next Gen car at Kansas (107).
Christopher Bell & Chase Elliott Top 10 Parlay (+125)
Shop your sportsbook to find the best price on this one. Christopher Bell has six Top 10s in the last 10 races and four in the last five. Chase Elliott only has two finishes outside the Top 20 all year. He ranks in the Top 10 in average finish and average running position over the last 10 races. He’s as consistent as it gets.
Parlay these two together and get the price of an Alex Bowman Top 10. Put a unit on it and don’t think twice about it!
Austin Cindric Top 10 (+400)
I have nothing that tells me I should make this bet, other than the fact Austin Cindric has looked fast since the Playoffs started. Over his last five races, he’s finished in the Top 10 twice and has no finish worse than 18th and that was Daytona.
I don’t expect Ford to be super competitive this weekend, however, Penske should rise to the top and I can see a Cindric sneaking into the Top 10. Sprinkle a little fun money on this longshot.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +19.93 Units (9.92% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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