We’re down to the final three races in the NASCAR Cup series season, and this weekend we’re headed to Homestead-Miami Speedway. Joey Logano shocked the Playoff field in Las Vegas, punching his ticket to the Championship Finale at Phoenix.
With just Homestead and Martinsville left to guarantee a spot in the Championship 4, I expect the Playoff drivers to be highly motivated and highly aggressive. Meaning I expect the winner to come from the seven remaining Playoff drivers without a win in this round.
I have three Playoff drivers that fit my betting criteria: good average finishes at Homestead, good recent performance, and a good price. Before I get into my picks, let’s see what the Professor’s Predictor model says.
The Predictor vs. The Books
Tier 1 of the Predictor is Christopher Bell (+700), Kyle Larson (+310), William Byron (+800), and Denny Hamlin (+1000). Those four drivers happen to be in the top six favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook as well.
Tier 2 of the Predictor has Tyler Reddick (+650), Chase Elliott (+1800), Ross Chastain (+2200), Bubba Wallace (+3000), Alex Bowman (+4000), Martin Truex Jr. (+2000), Chris Buescher (+4400), Kyle Busch (+2500), and Ty Gibbs (+2400).
There’s already been some crazy line movement on some drivers. Ryan Blaney has seen the biggest jump, opening at +1300 to +1000 in just 24 hours. The favorite Kyle Larson moved from +400 to +310, which is crazy to see people buying him at that number. And finally, Tyler Reddick has jumped from +800 to +650 overnight.
Outright Winner #1 - Christopher Bell (+700)
This week, I agree with the Professor. I love Christopher Bell to win this weekend, I’ve been saying it for the past six weeks, he’s my pick to win the championship.
Bell is simply peaking at the right time, and it’s crazy to think he hasn’t won a race since
Loudon in July. He’s beyond due, especially after his heartbreaking loss to Logano last week.
I’m putting a couple of units for Christopher “Ring The” Bell to lock himself into the Championship 4 and go back-to-back at Homestead.
Outright Winner #2 - William Byron (+800)
The only driver running better over the last five races than William Byron, is Christopher Bell. With an average finish of 5.8, I’m shocked Byron hasn’t been to victory lane since Martinsvile…in APRIL.
Three early season wins, then nothing but mediocrity till the Playoffs. But he’s also peaking at the right time and I think he will break through this weekend or next. He’ll be on my betting card to win for the next two weeks.
Outright Winner #3 - Denny Hamlin (+1000)
Denny Hamlin is also in a bit of a losing streak, he hasn’t won a race since Dover back in May. What started as “this could be the year” has turned into “we’re just not good enough.”
Despite Denny’s discouragement he’s still very much in this fight to make the Championship 4. Despite just one Top 10 finish in two NextGen Homestead starts, Denny holds the best average running position and second-best average finishing position on 1.5-mile tracks amongst active drivers.
If you’re going to give me +1000 odds for Denny Hamlin to come up clutch, I’ll take it every time. Just hope the pit crew holds up on their end.
Outright Winner #4 - Austin Dillon (+10000)
I know he’s not a Playoff driver, although there is an asterisk next to his name, but his numbers at Homestead in this car are too good to ignore. And you can trust this take because, after all, he is my mortal enemy.
Austin holds a seventh-place average finish in two NextGen starts at Homestead, which is second-best amongst drivers. He also runs just outside the top 10 on average meaning his car has speed and he’s keeping it near the front.
The bet here is Austin Dillon Top 10 at +350, however, a sprinkle on him to win in case chaos ensues is not a bad idea. You may even be offered a cash-out if running well.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +25.38 Units (9.00% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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