Race two in the Round of 12 heads to the most unpredictable track in NASCAR, Talladega Superspeedway. There’s been some debate on whether winning Talladega is completely by chance or not as unpredictable as you may think.
On this week’s episode of Dirty Mo Dough, Steve Letarte said that Talladega “is not random…that’s a slap in the face to the guys that are good at it.” Take a listen for yourself.
I agree with Steve on this one. Does Talladega have the capability to produce total random winners? Yes. However, during the Playoffs, does this specific Talladega race in the fall? No.
Since this Playoff format started in 2014, here are the fall Talladega winners: Brad Keselowski (twice), Joey Logano (twice), Ryan Blaney (twice), Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Aric Almirola, and Bubba Wallace.
You could argue that Aric Almirola was the most random winner of the bunch. However, his only career Cup win prior was at Daytona, and he is widely regarded as an amazing Superspeedway racer.
No matter which side of the argument you fall on, the stats are the stats, and stats would tell you the winner of this race will be a Playoff driver. So this week, let’s handicap the Playoff drivers and see who has the best chance to win at Talladega.
The Predictor vs. The Books
Tier 1 of the Predictor has a trio of Playoff drivers this week, Ryan Blaney (+1200), Chase Elliott (+1600), and William Byron (+1700).
Tier 2 covers more diversity, Kyle Busch (+1300), Denny Hamlin (+1700), Alex Bowman (+3400), Bubba Wallace (+2100), Ross Chastain (+2300), Austin Cindric (+2300), Daniel Suarez (+3400), Tyler Reddick (+2400), and Christopher Bell (+2500).
The Top Half - 1st-6th in Playoff Standings entering Talladega:
William Byron
Highest AVG. Running Position amongst active drivers (10.8)
2nd best AVG Finish at Talladega (8.6).
Ryan Blaney
Best AVG Finish on drafting tracks in the NextGen Era (11.8)
Best AVG Finish at Talladega among active drivers (7.2)
Most laps led at Talladega in NextGen Era (110).
Christopher Bell
Best AVG Finish and AVG Running Position amongst full-time drivers over the last 10 races.
Joe Gibbs Racing has NOT won at a drafting track in the NextGen Era.
AVG Finish is 23.0 on drafting tracks in the NextGen era.
Kyle Larson
5th worst AVG Finish on drafting tracks (24.5)
Has just 1 Top 5 finish on a Superspeedway in his career. (Spring Talladega 2022 - 4th)
Denny Hamlin
Just 3 Top 10 finishes on a drafting track since 2022.
6 Top 10 finishes in his last 10 races.
Alex Bowman
Quietly holds the 4th-best AVG finish at Talladega since 2022. (13.8)
The Bottom Half - 7th-12th in Playoff Standings entering Talladega:
Chase Elliott
2nd best AVG Running Position at Talladega since 2022. (11.6)
Won the 2022 Fall Playoff Race at Talladega.
Joey Logano
2nd most laps led in the NextGen era with 74.
Holds an AVG Finish of 26.4 since 2022.
2-time Atlanta winner since the repave and reconfiguration.
Tyler Reddick
AVG Finish of 22.5 in the NextGen era on drafting tracks.
Averaging just a 17th-place finish over the last 5 races.
Daniel Suarez
Middle of the pack in regards to AVG Finish and AVG Running Position at Talladega.
Led 35 laps at Talladega since 2022.
Chase Briscoe
Bottom 3 in every statistical category among Playoff drivers at Talladega except AVG Finish (15.2).
Austin Cindric
5th best AVG Finish on drafting track (15.3)
8th most laps led among Playoff drivers at Talladega.
My Best Bets - Ryan Blaney Outright Win (+1200) & William Byron Outright Win (+1700)
Longshot Pick - Alex Bowman (+3400)
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +20.45 Units (7.25% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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