For the majority of the summer, we’ve seen the pre-race favorites priced around +400 to +450 consistently. This week at Michigan, the favorites range from +650 to +850. A full 2.5 to 3 dollars higher than normal.
Is this a mispriced line? Or is Michigan tougher to predict the winner? Let’s break it down. First, starting with the Predictor:
The Predictor vs. The Books
The Predictor and the sportsbooks are on the same page this week, as all tier 1 drivers are the top four favorites. Denny Hamlin (+650), Kyle Larson (+700), Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney (+850).
Tier 2 hosts the +1000-+1400 range of drivers - Christopher Bell, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., and Brad Keselowski.
Tier 3 is where I believe the best value resides. You have Bubba Wallace (+2500), Chris
Buescher (+2000), Ross Chastain (+3000), Ty Gibbs (+2200), and Joey Logano (+1200).
Excluding Logano, tier 3 is the Playoff bubble battle. It includes the two drivers above and below the cut line, all needing a win to lock themselves into the playoffs.
So, the favorites have higher odds than normal, and the Playoff bubble drivers hold the best value, so how would I bet on this weekend’s board at Michigan?
Kyle Larson Outright Win - +700 on FanDuel
When’s the last time you were able to bet on Kyle Larson at 7/1 odds to win, at a track he has great numbers at? I’ve hardly bet Larson to win pre-race due to the odds being so low normally, but this line is too good to pass up.
Larson holds the second highest average finish at comparable tracks. And the third best at Michigan alone. Not to mention he got his first career Cup Series win at the track in 2016.
The only downside? Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won a Michigan race since Jeff Gordon in 2014. But you know what they say, trends are meant to be broken.
Winning Manufactuer - Ford - +210 on FanDuel
Ford has won the last nine races at Michigan. Therefore, I must have a Ford driver winning on my card and since I couldn’t decide between Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, or Brad Keselowski, I chose to root for the shield instead of the driver here.
Even though five of the last nine wins have been from Kevin Harvick, in Detriot’s backyard there’s nothing more Ford wants than that trophy for a 10th straight year.
Tampa Timms’ Sweat Bet of the Week - Erik Jones Finishing Position OVER 18.5 (+110)
Spend the winnings already because this bet is going to cash. Seriously though, despite Jones’s great numbers at his home track, I just haven’t seen any speed out of either one of the Legacy Motor Club cars this year.
Jones hasn’t had a Top 10 since his back injury, and he’s only finished under this number twice in the last 10 races.
Place this bet BEFORE practice and qualifying this weekend because it will disappear.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +27.29 Units (12.80% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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