We’re back! After a two-week hiatus for the Paris Olympics, NASCAR returns to Richmond Raceway as the battle heats up for a four-race run to the Playoffs.
Heading into the break, the books beat me down. I’m riding a tough four-race losing streak, but I’ve rigorously studied the board and am determined to get back on track at Richmond!
The Predictor vs. The Books
Historically, Richmond has been the best-performing track for the Predictor. This week the Professor has Christopher Bell on top of the Predictor, followed by Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson.
The books mostly agree as the opening lines have Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Martin Truex Jr. as co-favorites at +600. The best value on the board for tier 1 drivers lies with Chase Elliott at +1300.
Tyler Reddick and Martin Truex Jr. highlight tier 2 of the Predictor, followed by William Byron, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. Tier 2 is where you can find really good value as William Byron is +2000 and Brad Keselowski is +2200.
Denny Hamlin Outright Win - +600 on FanDuel
I’ll keep this short and sweet. Denny Hamlin holds the best average finish on short tracks, the best average finish at Richmond, and won here in the spring. He leads or is at the top of every statistical category at Richmond.
He needs to make your betting card no matter what happens in practice or qualifying.
The RFK Special - Brad Keselowski & Chris Buescher BOTH Top 10 - +150
The Dirty Mo Dough boys have said it all year, the RFK cars usually run well together and run badly together. Both drivers hold average finishes inside the Top 10 at Richmond, and Buescher had a win here last year.
This is the official Tampa Timms Sweat Bet of the Week, so parlay them together, grab a towel, and sweat it out with me!
Team Matchup - Spire over Legacy (-110)
You may have to shop the books to find this bet, however, if you can find it, I highly recommend this play making your final card for many reasons.
The first one is easy, Spire has three cars to Legacy’s two. Better chance of winning head-to-head. The second reason has to do with the talent at Spire, specifically Carson Hocevar. He’s 24th in points, the highest Spire Motorsports car, and three spots better than Legacy’s top entry, Erik Jones.
I think this matchup comes down to Hocevar outlasting Jones and John Hunter Nemechek with ease.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +28.94 Units (14.41% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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